What are my odds in a race lottery?

In short

According to published figures, your odds range from ~43% at the Copenhagen Marathon (2027) to ~1% at the New York City Marathon (2026). London, Paris or Sydney do not say how many places are drawn: we then give an estimate, for example at most ~7.5% in London and at least ~21% in Paris.

Which lottery race is the easiest to get into?

Copenhagen (43%), Dublin (37%) and Valencia (36%). These three races draw a large share of their places and publish their figures.

Which race is the hardest?

The New York City Marathon (~1% in 2026), then Zegama (~1.6% in 2023) and Western States (2% on average in 2026). London holds the record for applicants (1,338,544): by our estimate, your odds there are at most ~7.5%.

Your lottery odds, race by race

Copenhagen Marathon43%

Lottery applicants: 80,937
Lottery places: 35,000
Edition: 2027; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. The race's first ever lottery. Source: Organizer (copenhagenmarathon.dk).

Dublin Marathon37%

Lottery applicants: just over 47,000
Lottery places: 17,200
Edition: 2026; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. The other places (22,500 runners in all) go to charities, qualifying times and clubs. Source: Organizer, reported by The Irish Times.

Valencia Marathon36%

Lottery applicants: 57,572
Lottery places: 20,755
Edition: 2026; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. 15,245 places had already gone to the previous year's runners. Source: A single press source. to be checked

Comrades Marathon~34%

Lottery applicants: 42,802
Lottery places: 14,519
Edition: 2027; Public ballot for the 2027 edition. The 28,283 unsuccessful runners stay on the list for released places. Source: Press (allAfrica, September 2026).

Chicago Marathon~25%

Lottery applicants: over 200,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; About 55,000 starters, all entry routes combined. Source: marathonballot.com. to be checked

Valencia Half Marathon~24%

Lottery applicants: 50,766
Lottery places: 12,402
Edition: 2026; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. The other 12,598 places (out of 25,000) had already gone to the previous year's runners. A group of 3 has the same chances as a single person. Source: Organizer (2025 ballot report).

Berlin Marathon~20%

Lottery applicants: not published
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Number of applicants and places not published. Source: Rate attributed to the organizer (SCC Events) by marathonballot.com. to be checked

Tokyo Marathon~10%

Lottery applicants: about 300,000
Lottery places: about 30,000
Edition: recent years; Rough figures for the general lottery, according to the specialist press. Official figures not published. Source: Marathon Handbook. to be checked

Hardrock 1005% on average

Lottery applicants: 2,745
Lottery places: 146
Edition: 2026; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. Your odds depend on your tickets: from 0.3% with 1 ticket to 74% with 512 tickets (men who have never finished the race). Source: Organizer (2026 ticket table) and iRunFar.

Western States 1002% on average

Lottery applicants: 11,328
Lottery places: 254
Edition: 2026; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. A record number of applicants. Each year you are not drawn doubles your tickets. Source: MassUltra. to be checked

Zegama-Aizkorri~1.6%

Lottery applicants: over 13,800
Lottery places: 225
Edition: 2023; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. The 2026 figure is not published. Lottery places stay at 225 in 2027. Source: carrerasdemontana.com. to be checked

New York City Marathon~1%

Lottery applicants: over 240,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; The lowest in the race's history. Most runners get in other ways (qualifying time, charities, tour operators). Source: NYRR, reported by Running Magazine and PIX11.

Mount Whitney~27%

Lottery applicants: 26,219
Lottery places: 7,152
Edition: 2023; Rate = places ÷ applicants, our calculation. ~17% for a day hike, ~10% for an overnight trip, based on the first choice of dates. Source: 2023 figures from Inyo National Forest, relayed by hiking guides. to be checked

Hong Kong Marathon~62% all races estimate

Lottery applicants: about 120,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Estimate, our calculation: 74,000 places ÷ 120,000 applicants, marathon, half and 10K together. For the marathon alone, the odds are probably lower. For 74,000 places, all races combined (marathon, half, 10K). Source: The Standard. to be checked

Lavaredo Ultra Trailat most ~53% estimate

Lottery applicants: 3,422
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2025; Estimate, our calculation: 1,800 bibs in 2026 ÷ 3,422 applicants in 2025 for the 120 km. Two different editions, and some bibs do not go through the lottery. For the 120K, out of 14,759 applicants across all races. In 2026: 1,800 bibs for the 120K. Source: Organizer (lavaredo.utmb.world). to be checked

Sydney Marathonat most ~33% estimate

Lottery applicants: over 123,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Estimate, our calculation: 40,000 runners ÷ 123,000 applicants. This is a ceiling: not all runners go through the lottery. A record, up 56%. Over 40,000 starters, share drawn by ballot not announced. Source: Organizer, reported by Marathon Handbook. to be checked

Beijing Marathonat most ~32% estimate

Lottery applicants: over 100,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Estimate, our calculation: 32,000 places ÷ more than 100,000 applicants. The final total being higher, the real rate is lower. Reached less than an hour after opening, for 32,000 places. Final total not published. Source: Beijing Daily (bjd.com.cn). to be checked

UTMB Mont-Blanc~23% estimate

Lottery applicants: nearly 10,400
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Estimate, our calculation: 2,406 starters in 2026 for nearly 10,400 UTMB applicants. Bibs given outside the lottery (elites, charity bibs) lower this rate; entrants who do not start raise it. For the UTMB alone, plus nearly 7,200 for the CCC and 11,400 for the OCC. Your odds depend on your Running Stones, and rise by 30% if you come without a car. Source: Organizer, reported by Run247. to be checked

Paris Marathonat least ~21% estimate

Lottery applicants: 166,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2027; Estimate, our calculation: at least 35,000 bibs in the lottery (2027 rules, reported by Reference Trail) ÷ 166,000 applicants. The race's first lottery, applicants from 165 countries. Exact number of bibs drawn not published. Source: Organizer, reported by Stadion and Reference Trail. to be checked

Mont Blanc Marathon~12% estimate

Lottery applicants: nearly 27,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Estimate, our calculation: about 3,150 runners in the lottery (500 for the 90 km, 1,150 for the 42 km, 1,000 for the 23 km, 250 pairs) ÷ 27,000 applicants. Places taken from the official website. All races combined (90K, 42K, 23K, Duo Étoilé). Source: Organizer, quoted by the press. to be checked

London Marathonat most ~7.5% estimate

Lottery applicants: 1,338,544
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2027; Estimate, our calculation: 100,000 runners ÷ 1,338,544 applicants. This is a ceiling: some runners get in through charities or a qualifying time. A world record, including 1,008,091 in the UK. About 100,000 runners over two days (April 24 and 25, 2027), share drawn by ballot not announced. Source: Applicants: organizer (London Marathon Events, May 2026). Runners: press (ITV, July 2026). to be checked

Shanghai Marathon~6% estimate

Lottery applicants: 381,900
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2026; Rate announced by the press on results day. Some places go to runners qualified directly through Shanghai half marathons. For 30,000 places. Including 13,973 applicants from 116 countries and regions. Source: Press (Xinhua Finance, 30 June 2026). to be checked

The Enchantments~6% estimate

Lottery applicants: 39,695
Lottery places: 2,444
Edition: a past year; Our calculation: 2,444 permits ÷ 39,695 applications, all zones. Core zone: 24 people per day at most, 16 of them through the pre-season lottery. Source: figures from a past year relayed on a hikers' forum. to be checked

Paris Half MarathonRate not published

Lottery applicants: nearly 110,000
Lottery places: not published
Edition: 2027; Applicants from 135 countries. Number of bibs drawn not published. Source: Organizer, reported by Stadion and Reference Trail.

Tor des GéantsRate not published

Lottery applicants: ~2,000
Lottery places: 1,100
Edition: 2025; Pre-registered from 76 countries, plus ~250 past finishers with priority. Draw with a quota per country. Source: Aosta Valley press (Gazzetta Matin, February 2025). to be checked

Grand Raid, Diagonale des FousRate not published

Lottery applicants: not published
Lottery places: ~1,550
Edition: 2026; Out of 3,000 bibs: 1,250 drawn for Réunion residents, 300 for mainland France and overseas territories. The rest: packages, foreign runners with no lottery, partners. Number of applicants not published. Source: 2026 registration rules (grandraid-reunion.com).

Ranking: published rates first, from easiest to hardest, then our estimates (striped bar), then races with no figures, by number of applicants. The bar is only a guide: the figures are written in each card.

How do we work out these rates?

Lottery places divided by the number of applicants, using published figures only. If the organizer does not give both, we make an estimate from what is published (for example the total number of runners), marked “estimate” with its calculation. “At most” means the real rate is lower, “at least” that it is higher. With no usable figure, we write “Rate not published”. A figure from a single source, or from an unofficial source, is marked “to be checked”.

Does everyone have the same odds?

No. Western States and Hardrock give more tickets to those who have already lost. UTMB counts Running Stones and adds 30% to your odds if you come without a car. Valencia keeps places for the previous year's runners.

How can you improve your odds?

The lottery is not the only way in: charity places, qualifying times, official tour operators. Each guide lists these entry routes.

To check

Figures marked “to be checked” come from a single source, or from an unofficial source.
Zegama: the latest published figure dates from 2023.

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Frequently asked questions

Which marathon has the most applicants?

London 2027, with 1,338,544 applicants, a world record.

What are my odds for the New York City Marathon?

~1% in 2026, for over 240,000 applicants (NYRR figures).

What are my odds for the Paris Marathon?

At least ~21% by our estimate: at least 35,000 bibs in the lottery for 166,000 applicants in 2027. The official rate is not published.

Does losing the lottery improve my odds the next year?

Yes at Western States and Hardrock, where your tickets grow with each new application. For other races, see the rule on each guide.

When are the figures published?

Usually on the day the lottery results come out. We update them with each new edition.